BUY LOW SELL HIGH FANTASY FOOTBALL
We are now officially halfway through the NFL regular season. That might seem crazy to think about, and it’s even crazier that most fantasy leagues are more than halfway done. It’s time to start thinking about the playoffs, so today, we’ll be looking at three players that you should buy to help you bring home the championship and three that you should be looking to sell before your league’s trade deadline.
Buy
D.J. Moore, WR
This one seems easy. Moore has had a rough couple of weeks recently, finishing as the WR58 and the WR51 respectively in his last two games played. He has yet to deliver a 14-point or higher game in PPR leagues since he exploded for 49 points back in Week 5, but that can easily be explained by the absence of starting QB Justin Fields.
Fields has been out for a couple of weeks due to a thumb injury, and while he may be out again in Week 10, the team seems to think that he will be back sometime in the near future. He will be a massive upgrade over rookie Tyson Bagent, who has been the starter in his absence. The rookie has had a 1:2 touchdown to interception ratio since he took over in Week 6, and it’s clear that he’s just not good enough to support most of the weapons on this offense. Moore was the WR4 in fantasy through the first five weeks of the season with Fields fully healthy, and there’s no real reason to think that he can’t replicate much of that production when he gets his QB back in the near future.
Derrick Henry, RB
Everything you do in fantasy football should come with one goal in mind: winning the championship. I’m generally not super high on Derrick Henry for fantasy purposes, especially at this point in his career, but even I can’t overlook the fact that he could be a league-winning type of player over the back half of the season.
If your team is sitting well right now, you should be focused on prepping for the playoffs before your league’s trade deadline. Henry has been a pretty good fantasy option over the past few weeks, but his cakewalk of a schedule in the playoffs could lead to him elevating to a top-three player at the running back position over that stretch. From Week 12 on, he gets to play the Panthers, Colts, Dolphins, Texans, and Seahawks leading up to the championship game. Who does he play in the fantasy championship? The Texans again. Yep, the same Texans that he has notoriously dominated in essentially every game that he has played against them over the course of his career. If you want a shot at the title, making an aggressive move for Henry might be what puts you over the top and helps you bring it home.
Derrick Henry rushing lines last five games vs. the Texans:
32-211-3
22-212-2
34-250-2
32-219-2
23-126-1— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 7, 2023
Marquise Brown, WR
Brown has been a pretty good value so far this year, but he has yet to really dominate and actually show a whole lot of upside. He’s been the WR20 currently, but he has started to slow down over the past few weeks and has scored single-digit points in three out of his last four games. That’s leading many people to fade him for the rest of the year, but I think that now is the perfect time to buy.
Through the first six weeks of last season, when Marquise Brown was healthy and DeAndre Hopkins was out, Brown was the WR6 in that stretch in PPR leagues. That’s the type of damage that he can do on the field when he actually has competent QB play. Now, Kyler Murray is set to make his return for the Cardinals, and the young wideout has no real competition on this offense. He will continue to be the clear WR1, but now instead of playing that role on a terrible offense, he will catch passes from a proven QB that he already has chemistry with on a much-improved offense. Add in a great playoff schedule on top of all of that, and there’s plenty of reasons to believe that Brown could potentially be a league-winning type of player for the rest of the season.
Marquise Brown in 2022 with 1.) DeAndre Hopkins serving his suspension, and 2.) Healthy Kyler Murray under center:
4 rec-43 yards-1 TD (6 targets)
6-68-0 (11)
14-140-0 (17)
6-88-1 (11)
8-78-1 (10)
5-68-0 (9)Diggs, Kupp, Tyreek, Jefferson only WRs with more PPR points. Not bad!
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 8, 2023
Other good buy-low options:
- Puka Nacua, WR
- Tony Pollard, RB
- Zay Flowers, WR
Sell
Jakobi Meyers, WR
Meyers has been surprisingly good all season so far, but I think that there’s some reason to be concerned with his rest-of-season outlook. Even with Davante Adams having underperformed in nearly every game Week 4, I don’t really see much of a path for Meyers to finish as a mid-high WR2 for the rest of the year. However, I think many fantasy managers view his price as something close to that.
Prior to Jimmy G’s disaster class against the Lions in Week 8, Meyers was a WR1 through the first seven weeks of the season in both points per game and total points. He looked great in his role, but now, the team has made multiple key changes, including giving the starting quarterback job to rookie Aidan O’Connell. In his two games with O’Connell so far this year, Meyers is averaging just 4.5 targets per game. That’s a stark contrast to the nearly nine targets per game that he was seeing with Jimmy G. Luckily, he still had a good outing last week thanks in large part to a 17-yard rushing touchdown that he had, so fantasy managers can still sell him at a relatively high price before his value plummets.
Expected Fantasy Points per Game in Aidan O'Connell's two starts:
1. Josh Jacobs (24.6)
2. Davante Adams (18.5)
3. Jakobi Meyers (10.4)The Meyers thing was fun while it lasted but I would not count on him to post anything approaching WR1 numbers down the stretch
— Ryan Heath (@QBLRyan) November 8, 2023
Raheem Mostert, RB
Mostert had a good game in Week 9. He was able to finish with 85 yards and a touchdown, so why should we sell him now? Especially since he’s been great all season? Well, it may be hard to notice if you just look at the box scores, but there are multiple red flags that point to the veteran’s production taking a hit when Miami comes back from their Week 10 bye.
The most obvious reason is the imminent return of rookie RB De’Von Achane. He has been on IR for the past few weeks, but before he got hurt, we saw that he was clearly the better back between the two of them and was beginning to command more work in this backfield. He should pick up where he left off when he’s back within the next couple of weeks, which will leave Mostert with significantly less carries than were used to. On top of that, we’re seeing Jeff Wilson Jr. and Salvon Ahmed get worked into the passing game while Mostert takes a backseat. Ahmed and Wilson combined for five receptions in Week 9, whereas Mostert finished with zero. Ahmed also ran more routes than him, which just goes to show that they’re not looking his way in the passing game much when everyone is healthy. Pair that with reduced work in the rushing game and you have a perfect candidate to negatively regress over the back half of the season.
Interesting time to try to sell Raheem Mostert high in season-long, as @JackMiller02 noted on pod last week.
* Bye this week
* De'Von Achane (knee) tentatively expected back Week 11
* Mostert is 31 years old and averaging 14.2 touches/game
* Fantasy playoff sked is NYJ, DAL, BAL— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 6, 2023
Nico Collins, WR
Collins finally had a bounce-back game in Week 9 after disappearing for the previous four weeks. He was able to benefit from QB C.J. Stroud’s all-time rookie performance against the Buccaneers, finishing with his highest point total since Week 4 in PPR formats. Still, I think fantasy managers should be selling him right now.
Like I said before, he was essentially non-existent for multiple weeks before this. He’s been the WR47 in fantasy points per game over the last five weeks, and I don’t think that he’s going to get a whole lot better. He has gotten over six targets in a game just once since Week 3, and for someone that isn’t known for making big plays like Collins, that’s a killer. He’ll need high volume to be a consistent producer for fantasy, but he hasn’t been getting it, and I don’t think that’s going to change while Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz continue to get better and command more targets. Collins’ Week 9 performance was solid, so you should be looking to sell him while the hype for C.J. Stroud and this Texans’ passing game is at an all-time high.
Other good sell-high options:
- D’Andre Swift, RB
- Kareem Hunt, RB
- Gus Edwards, RB
Leo Sells is a passionate fan for the Patriots and 76ers, and he has been playing fantasy sports for over five years. In addition to writing articles about sports and winning his fantasy football leagues, Leo likes to play sports and spend time with his family and friends doing outdoor activities, such as hiking or fishing.
